Monday, November 26, 2007

Crazy new poll in the Independent

So tomorrow there is a poll in the Independent by Communicate Research that gives the Conservatives their biggest leads for quite literally years of 13%. The figure that is causing shock and conseternation though is the Labour one which has them on just 27%. The headlines figures are Conservatives 40%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 18%.

Perosnally I never trust the polls because I always remember 1992. What people tell the pollster and what they actually end up doing seem to be two very different things. However, for amusement and interest I trhough the figures into Electoral Calculus. Apparently, if it happened that way the Conservatives would ahve a 64 majority. More interesting still was that Alistair Darling, Charkles Clarke, John Hutton and Jon Cruddas amongst many others would all lose thier seats.


Anonymous said...

1992 may be relevant for another reason, which might point the other way: the Tories tend to do better than polls indicate, and the Socialists worse. If that is the case, we could be on track for a three figure majority, despite our biased electoral system.

Or maybe not.

Mulligan said...

Poor old Alistair, seems to be a run of losing things.

Anonymous said...

Opinion polls almost invariably give the socialist scum a higher percentage than they get in a real proper (secret ballot) election.

Thats because us tories are evil and socialist lefties are nice so a lot of us tories apparently lie and say we will vote scum, probably in an attempt to chat up the nice leftie girl doing the survey.

I understand from some pollsters that this effect tends to give labour 5% more in opinion polls than they actually get. Which if true now is the best fucking news I've had since 1997! Cyclops is fucked!! :D


Unknown said...

What I'd love to see is Labour knocked into third place behind the Lib-Dems. 9 points to go!