Polling day arrives

Well today is polling day. As should now be abundantly clear, I am not in the country and am, in fact, right now probably on a beach enjoying the Greek climate and gazing at the wonder of the Ionian whilst romanticising about the Classics. As such I have no idea what has happened in the campaign so have to write entirely from a speculative viewpoint. The result of this by-election, whatever it may be, will produce highly predictable post-count analysis. If Labour lose then it will be a "blow for Brown" obviously. If the Lib Dems get knocked into third then Campbell's leadership will be in question and Nick Clegg will be being mooted as the man to solve their problems.

If the Conservatives find themselves in third then the phrases stagnation, static, and all other euphemisms for not moving forward will be wheeled. In that scenario it is important to avoid blinking I think. The Tories have, historically, had trouble with winning by-elections with dramatic swings in their favour. This is primarily because for the period since universal suffrage came in, we've been the party most likely to be in power. Incumbency, added to a need to get a gain, is never an easy prospect for any party.

For all I know though, an Independent might win because the locals got annoyed with factionalism of the campaign and that really would put the cat amongst the pigeons. So here's goes with my prediction from a far with sod all knowledge of what might have happened in the final week. Labour win by a massively reduced majority with a swing to the Tories. The Lib Dems poll around the same level in sheer number of votes what they did last time. A sign of relief for Brown, a boost for Cameron, and a horrible summer of soul searching for Campbell.

Yours wondering why he couldn't just live here instead,

Dizzy