Exit Poll wierdness

OK, so the Exit Poll came in, and I'm a bit late with comment due to some Wifi issues, but frankly, it's nutty. Does anyone credibly think and believe that the Lib Dems, given the polls of the last few weeks, are really going to lose seats?

If it turns out to be right t's certainly a disaster for them, but I'm thinking right now that the three main broadcasters are going to look very silly if it turns out to be wrong. Will post some more in a while.

Were the wheels on Cleggmania not even screwed on?

Tom Harris - funny as f&^!

OK, so I've been asleep much of the day and am now on the caffeine binge, just wanted to say that Tom Harris maybe Labour but at least he's got a sense of humour.

Hat Tip: Iain Dale

The fun begins tonight......

Well today's the day. If you'll excuse the cynicism in my earlier post, tonight is going to be great fun. From midnight, I will be helping out Iain Dale and Gaby Hinsliff out along with other bloggers, pollsters and party insiders, in the LBC radio station.

You might also see me mooching around at the Messagespace Election Night Party which you can buy tickets for here.

Remember, that tonight is all about fun, and, if you're at a count, or you have any gossip about what might be going on, even if it's just that you've spotted your sitting MP looking very glum, then let me know over Twitter or email.

Note: LBC is available on 97.3 FM, DAB and Sky Channel 0124. You can also call the studio on 0845 6060973, email via studio@lbc.co.uk, send Tweets to @lbc973 or text on 84850. As I say, you can also contact me directly as well with gossip, I don't get upset by rude words either.

Five (or six) elections predictions.....

I must be mad, but I'm going to offer up some predictions of what is going to happen tonight. All of them will no doubt be wrong, but such is the joy of provide some commentary, so here goes.

1: There are going to be some shock results for the Tories and Lib Dems tonight. What I mean here are gains from Labour where the candidate ends up in Westminster saying "but this wasn't meant to happen!"

Party political hacks will know the sort of people I am talking about here. The "paper candidates" who are expecting to come third or a long way off second but have not really planned for life in Parliament "coming through the middle". It's entirely possible that we will see slate voting of the anti-Labour variety that splits the traditional Labour vote leaving the way clear for the unexpected finish.

2: Following on from (1), I think we can expect some knife-edge recounts and in the end we're going to have a hell of a lot more marginal constituencies by Friday. This is a good thing if First-Past-The-Post remains as the electoral system - because everyone will have to fight to survive. Less safe seats is a big-plus.

3: Big name are going to fall tonight. Former Cabinet ministers definitely, sitting Cabinet ministers, probably. There will be more than one "Portillo Moment" but, and this is crucial, it will not necessarily be representative of a uniform national swing. If Ed Balls goes, it won't follow that all targets below that on the list will fall too.

4: The polls will once again be shown to overstate Labour support and understate Tory support at the popular vote level.

5: The Labour leadership campaign will start the moment someone big falls. Watch out for the first admission by a senior Labour person that they've lost and then watch it snowball.

What's that? You want to know who I think will win the whole thing? OK, I'll risk it.

I think that the Tories are going to edge it with a really slim majority that may well mean the rule that political opponents are in front of you but your political enemies are behind you is more prevalent than it has been for over a decade. Expect another election within 12 months.

Now that I've said that they'll probably be a landslide!

Remember one thing today.....

Whoever wins the election the Government will still be in charge

Now off you run and vote little ones. Hansard trawling is coming back soon, then I can get back to pointing out how crap the Government are/were/will be!

This post was brought to you my Cynic Plus - putting the cynicism back into politics

13 Years of Labour

The only question I have when watching this video is why on earth is it appearing so bloody late in the campaign? Some may say it's negative, but it's a serious indictment that brings together what Labour have said, and what has happened over the past 13 years.

They came in offering hope and renewal. What they brought was financial sleaze and financial meltdown.


Hat Tip: Tory Bear

Cameron passes Cowell audition

I was, I must admit, wondering how long it would take before Simon Cowell for it is He said something about the election and so it has come to pass.

The veritable God amongst men, Simon Cowell has endorsed David Cameron saying he is "da man"* and I imagine that there will be quite a happy view of that little front page in CCHQ this morning. The question is, does or can it have influence?

I would imagine there will be many who would be aghast at the thought that it might have influence. That a man responsible for populist TV shows, who has made his living out of telling people they're crap when they really are crap might influence the democratic process is a shocking portrayal of the intellectual level of political discourse in Britain, right?

Wrong. Simon Cowell's on-screen success is because of his brutal honesty. At a time when trust in politics is such a major issue, someone like Cowell actually represents exactly that which so many would love to see in their politicians.

Cowell is, and I caveat this by stressing I'm talking about his "on-screen" persona only - a no-spin zone. If he thinks something is ridiculous, if he thinks something is rubbish, he says so and he doesn't worry too much about upsetting some people in the process. Now of course, you could say this is, in itself, a bit of spin, but perception-wise he does what people wish politicians would do and that is why it's pretty significant.

No doubt the hand-wringing anti-Murdoch pseudo-intellectuals will be suggesting it denigrates people's intelligence to have someone say what they think, all because of where they say it - if it's in the Murdich press they must be a Rupert-inspired conspiracy going on right? That's how it works don't you know! Pass the tinfoil!

More than once on this blog I've said that normal ordinary people really don't care that much about politics, they'd rather be watching the X Factor. So, when the X Factor supremo comes out and says something they will tend to listen. I'm not saying they'll agree, but I imagine if you did a poll asking who was more trusted in general between the leaders and Cowell, Cowell would win hands down.

The X Factor election just got an X Factor endorsement. Now pass the tea Alice, the white rabbit is getting thirsty. Arise Lord Cowell of Hove?

* Before anyone gets animated about me calling Cowell a "God", I offer this caveat. Yes, he has produced some gut-wrenchingly dire and genuinely sickening acts in his time, but the majority have been a success. Compare this with someone like Lord Alan Sugar, who's businesses have manufactured technology on the wrong side of the technology curve repeatedly.

The Fourth Debate - Rap Battle

A "Streets-esque" take on a fourth debate from Dan Bull

Has Clegg split the Labour high-command?

So I guess that May 4th 2010 will officially go down as the day the electoral message of the Labour Party went from desperate begging for another chance to utterly surreal calls of pure contradiction.

On the one hand, we've had Ed Balls speaking in a coded way suggesting that keeping the Tory out in a Lib-Con marginal is more important that voting Labour, a theme echoed by Peter Hain under which lies the essential Tory message on the Hung parliament of "Vote Clegg, Get Brown".

Then on the other hand, when questioned, Gordon Brown contradicts Ed Balls saying "a vote for the liberals may allow the conservatives to be elected" - in other words, like so many of Labour's leaflets across the country, "Vote Clegg, Get Cameron".

So what we have is talk of tactical voting that represents a complete tactical blunder by Labour, because they're now pushing two completely contradictory lines, one of which just happens to be the consistent Tory line about what a vote for Clegg.

Frankly, it's just getting silly, but more so, it suggests that there may actually be a split in the Labour's electoral strategy at the top now as they battle to try and figure out how they deal with the Lib Dems - much in the same way the Tories had trouble figuring out how to deal with Tony Blair.

It's ironic of course that the Labour message about the Lib Dems now appears to be in line with the general message that the Lib Dems push, i.e a different message for different places.

48 hours to go... can you help?

As Iain Dale posted yesterday, on election night I will be helping him and Gaby Hinsliff out along with other bloggers, pollsters and party insiders, in the LBC radio station after midnight.

I will also, before the show kicks off, be popping along to the Messagespace Election Night Party which you can buy tickets for it here.

I may not make it through the whole night in the LBC studio but I will do my best - the stitches in my hand are coming out shortly and it is slowly returning to fall strength, but it does tend to start aching after a while, especially at night, so typing may have to stop somewhat at some point.

It's fair to say that this Thursday is going to be one of the most exciting and close run election in living memory - and it may, as yet, throw up some real surprises - I shan't lie and tell you that I've been dreaming of Labour and Brown not only humiliated by defeat but humiliated into third in vote share and seat share. Unlikely I know, but wouldn't it be funny?

The thing is, on election night, I need help from you too. Whatever shade of political colour you might, if you're lucky enough to be at a count, and seeing as there are local elections too you might even be a candidate then you can play a part.

Basically, ping me a mail and then we'll talk about lines and means of communication on the night - it could be text message, Twitter, email, voice, whatever. Some of you will be wandering around counts and getting a feel for what is happening on the ground, if you're in marginals, be they Lab-Con, Lib-Con or Lib-Lab, it's where the real action and overall result is going to lead from.

Also, as I mentioned in the last post, I'm looking for some people willing to moderate here, especially on election night too if they can. 48 hours to go until polling booths open. As the rather irritating and politically naive Labour party hack Ellie Gellard would say, game on!

Note: LBC is available on 97.3 FM, DAB and Sky Channel 0124. You can also call the studio on 0845 6060973, email via studio@lbc.co.uk, send Tweets to @lbc973 or text on 84850. As I say, you can also contact me directly as well with gossip, I don't get upset by rude words either.