Tuesday, April 20, 2010

The next big threat for the Tory/Labour campaigns?

Very soon, the quarterly figures for GDP are due. There are, of course, three possibilities - it could go down, it could go up, or it could stay the same. Currently there is a predicted expectation of it being about 0.4%, which would be, if I recall correctly, 0.3% above the last set of results.

I would imagine that Gordon Brown is praying that this is the case, because it will mean he can not only say that he's led the country into recovery - however tiny - but also push the line that the recovery is very fragile and so you shouldn't risk it by changing the party in power.

Of course, there is another possibility that the figure goes down or flatlines. The impact of the unexpected severe snow is yet unknown, and if it goes backwards, then it will skewer Brown's argument about Tory policies leading to a "double-dip" recession.

If the latter happens it would be another game changer in an election campaign that has had some roller coaster moments already. If the former occurs then it will bolster Labour's negative message about the Tories and the economy.

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