Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Brown Predictions vs Brown Reality

Following on form the last post. Instead of looking at Brown's words and predictions as Chancellor here is a neat little graph that compares his fantasy land predictions with the reality of what he actually did.

The dotted downwards lines are his borrowing figures and his predictions for the coming years. The solid orange line that rises in an approximate 30 degree angle upward trend is reality.

Click Image for larger Version

Debt is not down, it has risen year on year whilst he stood up in Parliament and said it was always coming down. The man is a complete and total liar.
Thanks to Croydonian for plotting the numbers for me.

7 comments:

Kafka said...

Any chance of adding in the current predictions? Or the current predictions plus PFI plus public sector pension liabilities?

Verification = derise (!!) Spot on!

Praguetory said...

Imagine what will happen now he's predicting large rises. The actual line will be approaching vertical.

Robert said...

He is not a lier when did a politician tell you the facts.

Conand said...

I especially like the 2003 and 2005 predictions. Who says Gordon can't be funny??

Alfred T Mahan said...

Thanks for the graph, Dizzy!

Pete said...

Dizzy - You don't tell us where you found the graph - but Michael Blastland has a good corrective to this kind of statistical reasoning here - it includes:

So is borrowing already a record, as recent wild headlines have suggested? Evidently not, at least not in any meaningful sense,

(Michael Blastland, incidentally, is the co-author of 'The Tiger That Isn't' - a very readable intro to statistics, particularly in the context of political argument. See New Scientist for a review. )

dizzy said...

Pete have you bothered to read the post? Evidently not or you would have clicked the link in the first sentence which would have taken you to the previous post which showed what Brown said in each of his budgets from 2003 onward.

You would have also read, if you ad read the post, the part which thanks Croydonian for plotting the number for me. I didn't find the graph, I had it made to illustrate what Brown said borrowing was each year and then his forward predictions from that year.

What you have done, in the context of political argument, is come in and point out that I am playing with statistics and trying to say there is record debt even though I didn't use that phrase and did not make that point. That makes your point moot at best and a straw man at worst.

The point in this post is very simple, Brown's own words (which you would have been aware of if you had clicked the link) say one thing is going to happen whilst his actions say another.