Sunday, May 25, 2008

How refreshing to be in a win/win situation

Hardly surprising really, but the papers are full this morning with rumours of plots and potential leadership "dream tickets" for the Labour Party. The most interesting in all this sudden panic within Labour surely has to be that the Tories are in a virtual win/win situation.

If Brown is ousted, or if he steps down for the "good of the party" then it's highly unlikely a General Election won't be called when the new leader takes the helm. True, they don't have to have an election, but to change the PM twice in the space of a year without one wouldn't be an easy thing to get away with.

It's very unlikely in those circumstances that they could hold on to power if there was an election this year. The other option, to say "carry on Gordon" would end up looking just a carry on film if the recent few months have been anything to go on.

Brown is one of the Tories greatest assets and to have the option to chip away at him and bring about a long slow political death in 2010 gives the Tories the time to carry on development their policy platform. Seems quite weird for there to be a fork in the road and know that either will have a positive political result.

18 comments:

Mr Eugenides said...

I agree, it's win-win.

But on balance, you've got to be rooting for the slow, drawn-out torture rather than the swift execution. To those of us old enough to remember the long death-agony of the Major government, this is pretty sweet...

haddock said...

They have had 11 years to develop policy.... and they need 2 more ?... we are more buggered than I thought ( and I thought that we were considerably so !).
They could save time, steal most of UKIPs policies and win a landslide, a landslide that would actually do some good and solve some problems instead of 'addressing some issues'.

Time will Tell said...

If, as you say, the Tories are in a virtual win/win situation, then Labour is in a virtual lose/lose one.

It is nearly bankrupt and so cannot afford a general election in the near future. But its financial situation could well deteriorate significantly further if its large donors call in their loans - some will want to do so asap to be at the head of the queue. The only way out could be for Brown to institute state funding of political parties.
Public reaction to that is highly predictable.
So it suits the Tories for the present situation to continue - but not the country. We are an international laughing stock epitomised by the appalling leadership and cowardice at No 10.
What can be done?

Praguetory said...

You're right, Dizzy. I don't think that Brown will be pushed (because nobody else wants the chalice), but he might go of his own accord if things remain as grim for Labour.

The Raven said...

Quite. I honestly don't believe the public will accept a party changing the Prime Minister twice, purely for the sake of wanting to win elections. And since all the potential rivals have said Brown is the right man for the job, are they not going to look like epic hypocrites if they then stab him in the back?

It could happen, I suppose; it's not outside the realm of all possibility. But I just don't see Brown hanging up his hat for the good of the Labour party, or the country, for that matter. And, similarly, the longer he stays, the longer it will take to float the sinking ship.

Anonymous said...

Absolutely spot on. I guess Gordie will hang on by the fingernails because its his nature. He covets the PM job and hasnt been there a year yet. He yearns for that glorious slot in history which (strangely enough) Tony Bliar got and he looks like not getting.

The longer he hangs on the worse for him and for Liebour. If he goes there'll be blood-letting among the 'brothers' and his replacement will immediately face the question from david cameron at PMQs - "will you go to the people for their endorsement?"

- 'yes' means annihilation by the people. 'no' means back to where we were when everyone deludedly thought Gordie was a statesman instead of a paper tiger.

The Labour defeat clock is ticking...

John Pickworth said...

Poor Labour, they're all over the place at the moment.

The past few hours have seen a handful of Ministers and former noteworthies coming out for the Great Leader. While that might breathe a little life into the corpse they are wontonly ignoring the wishes of the British public.

Reading the various articles (of which there are many) in the online editions of the newspapers, its quite surprising the huge numbers of people commenting... to a man (or woman) they are all calling for Brown to go. Clearly, its not just Brown who has ceased to listen to the people... the whole flippin' Labour Party is now infected with selective deafness.

bristol dirt bag said...

I hope they don't get rid of Mad Gordon just yet... for the first time in years I'm finding that the news makes me laugh more than the comedy programmes... and I'm loving every minute of it.

Ed said...

I have one big problem about this thesis of Brown being the Tories greatest strength and should be allowed to run the country for up to another 2 or so years. It is precisely that, he will be able to run the country and inflict further great damage, running the country into the ground basicaly.

My dream scenario is that the PLP fights like ferrets in a sack for the next couple of months, Brown throws his toys out of his pram and calls for a vote of confidence which he then promptly loses. We then have a GE and in the meantime Cameron and his crew get their policies worked out in detail. The Tories may not look like ready for government right now, but you can bet they would very quickly in this dream scenario. Hey, even S Heffer Esq. may have something positive to say!

Not a sheep said...

But if they hold an election this year and the Conservative party wins then some (maybe most) of the blame for the coming economic disaster will fall upon them rather than Gordon Brown and his fellow fools. I want to see Gordon take the rap for the economy's collapse, I want to see his falsely obtained reputation for economic competency utterly destroyed .

On the other hand, by 2010 the country could be beyond repair and so controlled by the EU that there is no way back.

All in all might it be best if we just abandon ship?

Anonymous said...

How about Milliband being 'invited' to be Deputy Leader with Prescott brought back in to 'mediate' between the Old and New Labour factions.

Brown then promises to hand over to Milliband after the next election.

Labour is saved and there will be peace in the ranks

John M Ward said...

Sums up my own thoughts very accurately, as I have been saying to folk in recent times, especially since last Friday morning.

Meanwhile, Gordon seems to have renained hidden away in his bunker.

tapestry said...

What about rumours that Gordon will push through the Euro in the next two years, once Lisbon makes it possible to enforce on the UK from Brussels without ratification in the UK.

Anonymous said...

All fine if you're a Conservative Party worker, being paid to draft policy for 2010. In the meantime, the Labour government will make more mistakes, try to buy more votes and carry on... carrying on.

We need an election now to get rid of this lame administration, to get on with the new ideas.

I don't care if we see a troop of "stalking horse". I loath Gordon Brown and want him out now.

But above all, I want something done about the dodgy public finances, the culture of spin and deceit in our administration, the bureaucracy faced by frontline public servants and so much more.

The downfall of the Labour elite and the electoral advantage of the Tories matters little to most...

Forge Lindin said...

'Theres no clear winner' seems to be the objection to a leadership battle for labour. But why should that be a recommendation for the current one ? When Cameron ran he wasn't the clear winner. He's certainly seen as more of a clear winner now, even though he does have a long way to go.

Labour seem to be unable to grasp the notion of a leadership contest. Surely they can find one person from more than 400. Gordon Brown might find his best bet is to be a Ming, and look after the longer term future of his party at the expense of his own.

But I suppose its easy to say that now.

Bill Quango MP said...

"carry on Gordon"

Was that the one when Sid James had a budgie that gave him betting tips? Only it went wrong and he ended up sellng the countries gold reserves in exchange for a taxi firm?

Letters From A Tory said...

Brown may be a great asset but he is destroying this country - which makes me less keen to have him in charge for two more years.

lola said...

Not that I am at all vindictive by nature, but the prospect of Brown staying at No 10 for another two years, gradually being gound up by the Opposition and watching as all his policy failures as Chancellor unravel and come back to haunt him, is just too delicious to contemplate...