Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Team Livingstone fabricates polling data

It is becoming clear that Livingstone desire to "shoot the messenger" when something irks him is inherent and entirely built into his psyche. If we look at the Lee Jasper story we see the instant charges that it's all about racism, and now he has gone on the attack against YouGov because they published polls showing he was being beaten by double-digit margin. A statement put out says,
"YouGov has a record of significantly underestimating Ken Livingstone’s vote in London. On the day before the last Mayoral election YouGov put Ken Livingstone just two per cent ahead of the Conservative Steve Norris, leading to an Evening Standard headline of ‘It’s Neck and Neck’ even although Livingstone actually won by nearly 11 per cent."
However, as Mike Smithson at Political Betting has noted, the statement about YouGov and previous polls is actually a complete fabrication.
The facts are that on the day before the 2004 vote the Evening Standard carried a report of a YouGov survey which found that amongst all potential electors Livingstone was beating Norris by 37% to 26%. When the second preference votes were taken into account, YouGov found a split of 55% to 45%. The actual result after the second preferences were counted was Livingstone 55.4% to Norris’s 44.6% - which meant that YouGov was right to within 0.8%.
SO let's get this straight. YouGov published a poll saying Livingstone had an 11% lead, Livingstone won with an 11% lead, YouGov's numbers were almost exactly on the money, so the Livingstone campaign decides to make stuff up about the pollster which isn't actually true?

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Anonymous said...

The word 'desperation' doesn't even come close to describing Ken's state of mind. He's just lashing out now.

i blame the empire said...

UhOh Ken, I think you just 'Mis-spoke'.

I'm worried zaNuLabour will delay Ken's count.

Anonymous said...

Evening Standard, day before the last Mayoral election:

"The Labour and Conservative candidates are now neck and neck, with Mr Livingstone at 51% and Mr Norris on 49% of support from people who say they are certain to vote."


dizzy said...

"from people who say they are certain to vote." The poll data is incomplete. YouGov did not say what Team Livingstone is saying they said at all

marvin said...

Surely not! Doesn't sound like our Ken...

Anonymous said...

Re Anonymous at 12:22....the same Standard article also says:

"However, a strong turn-out by Labour supporters could easily see Mr Livingstone retain his office.

Among all potential electors, Mr Livingstone is 11 points ahead of Mr Norris's 26%.

When the crucial second preference votes are taken into account, this translates into 55% to the Tory candidate's 45%.

Among those who say they are most likely to vote, the Labour lead is cut to just three points.

After second preferences, Mr Livingstone is just two points ahead on 51% to Mr Norris's 49%."

so I guess it is how you tell the story...