Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Is Brown preparing to split the Tory vote?

Election fever is here again! Well, not quite, but 'party sources' are saying to the Indy, and probably the other papers that I have yet to read, that Brown is considering a double whammy General Election in June 2009 to coincide with the European Elections.

If he does go for that there could be quite an interesting result I think. Currently, if I recall correctly, there has been a polling tendency for some Tory voters to vote UKIP in European elections. If offered that decision on the same day as a General Election might we see a split in the Tory vote in key marginals?

This could be a clever strategy by Brown, because he must be aware that if he does join the two elections up he will give a greater and wider platform to UKIP, with the hope of exposing splits over Europe on the centre-right.

18 comments:

Barnacle Bill said...

We will probably see the same ill thought out ballot paper as used in the recent Scottish elections cobbled together if he does go down this path.
So the results might be even more interesting than you predict Dizzy!

Alex said...

I very much doubt a small number of people going over to ukip will be enough to save him. The only sadness is that we have to wait over a year to get rid of the shower.

haddock said...

I would be happy to vote UKIP for Europe and Conservative in the General Election. Unlike MPs we are not under a 3 line whip and can vote if and when we like. I think UKIP will gain massively in the EU election,most people see their MEPs as an irrelevance and will vote UKIP just to embarrass the other parties.
I would bet money on Brown's tactics bringing traditional labour voters out to vote for UKIP in the European elections..... and while they are there they are likely to vote against the parties which didn't allow them a vote in the referendum.
Brown has yet to make a good call, this is unlikely to be his first.

Anonymous said...

It's about time he went for some kind of electoral mandate - at present he's just a squatter at No 10 with an unhealthy dislike of polls

Anonymous said...

If this is his plan, he is greatly underestimating voters' willingness and ability to vote for different parties in different types of election, even on the same day. But then he underestimates voters all the time.

Anonymous said...

Cool, over a year for Brown to dither over making a decision.

Andy said...

This would work out well for the Conservatives as it would drag reluctant Tories to the polls and they can have their little UKIP protest vote then cast their main UK vote for Cameron.

Floetry said...

Only fools would vote UKIP in a national, what a wasted vote!

Anonymous said...

Studies of concurrent elections have show that voters often do split ticket voting, choosing different parties in elections on the same day.

It might bring a small advantage to Labour that way but the negatives could out way the benefits.

Labour's policy on Europe is hardly a vote winner at the moment.

Anonymous said...

That would be clever. Hence Gordon is unlikely to do it. (He's not clever and he hasn't got the balls, apart from Ed).

What's the latest date he could possibly call an election? That will be the day it's on. Fucking cowardly indecisive scum.

Zorro
--

FJMS said...

I bet the polls will still be showing a tory lead and he'll do another will he - wont he and decide he won't. He's already shown he cannot take a brave decision.

Dave B said...

Whenever Mr Brown tries to be clever, clever it seems to backfire. In this case, the EU elections would remind all of us that Labour and the Lib-Dems had reneged on their manifesto pledges to a referendum on the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty.

Conservatives are going to win the next election in a flipping landslide.

Mark M Heenan said...

The other cleverness of this is that before the Euro elections in June he has the County elections in May to test the waters.

As for splitting the vote several commentors have hit the nail on the head that voters can be surprisingly sophisticated in their voting habits. One only has to look at the large minority of votes in multi-member council wards where candidates from two or even three different parties receive a vote from a single ballot paper.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you tearing apart the Tory on the issue of Europe is a very clever political strategy from Gordon Brown and it may work for Labour. Let us hope that is what Mr. Brown wants to do.

Mukhtar Ainashe
Washington, DC.

wwww.ainashe.net

Rachel Joyce said...

As has been pointed out by Conor Burns on CentreRight, UKIP let Chris Huhne the LibDem Europe lover in through the back-door by taking some votes away from Conor, the Conservative Candidate.
This fact would have to be very well publicised particularly in marginals.

Anonymous said...

He won't have the county elections in May - in Euro election years they are moved to June:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections%2C_2004

I think we'll have locals, Euros and UK election all on one day - June 11, 2009.

judith said...

Mark Heenan - take it from me, there are electors who think you HAVE to divide your vote amongst the Parties at Council elections, I know, I've spoken to them.

Mark M Heenan said...

Yes Judith, that's certainly true of some. I called on one woman and identified myself as a Conservative candidate and received the response "no thanks dear I've already got a conserva-tory"

But there are plenty of ballot papers you see at a council count which fall Lab Lab Con, or LD LD Con, or other combinations, which are clearly the product of some thought.