Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The future is not bright for the Lib Dems

If you believe the hype from those that kill it is said that the first time you do it is the hardest, the second time is much much easier. This is certainly true in the political world it seems where Cowley Street became the crime scene of yet another gang land stabbing incident in the capital. There was no hesitation, no mild stab in the stomach causing the victim to slowly bleed to death. No. This time it was a swift injection of steel into the base of the neck driving upwards. Dare I say it was textbook commando stuff?

The obvious question now is where next for the Lib Dems? Do they go Left or Right? They're biggest problem is that so many of them fail to realise that much of their success in the last election stemmed not from being a viable alternative but because they opposed the war in Iraq. That war, whether ongoing or not is no longer the potent political message of the day.

Meanwhile many of the votes they picked up were anti-Blair Labour voters. The polls, so the argument goes are now showing the Tories picking up Lib Dem votes. This is, I think, only partly true. The two main parties are in fact simply taking their votes back. The Lib Dems are not losing Lib Dems they're losing the people that floated over to them because they were either (a) Labour haters of Blair, or (b) still thinking the Tories were not presenting anything new. In both these circumstances the game has now changed.

The 1990s and early naughties have been a political aberration in the two party system. The third party's apparent success has been based not on principled political ideas but on general disaffection with traditional allegiances. The Lib Dems, whichever direction they go in, will not likely recover, or achieve any greater success nationally. Locally may be a different matter.

The two front runner choices pose significant problems though. If they go Right then their inevitable social liberalism will not appeal to many traditional Conservative voters, whilst their economic liberalism will keep the Labour voters away. If they go Left then they can kiss goodbye to disaffected Tories, whilst what Labour votes they might gain would easily be lost due to tribalistic fear of the Tories winning power.

In short for the Lib Dems, the future is not bright, and it definitely isn't yellow.

4 comments:

anthonynorth said...

Okay, so the latest game of Mingo is over. Ash down, look in. My predictions for what should happen. Look out for one fat lady at No 8, but Kennedy's Eye should be No 1.

Tony said...

If it was textbook commando 'negotiation' then the knife would have been inserted from behind the ear... but I digress.

I think it will be Huhne who wins it. However he is one of the most dislikeable Lib Dems of the lot and his agenda would likely appeal more to Labour waverers than Conservatives. A Clegg win would create interesting times for Team Cameron.

Scary Biscuits said...

The Liberals must stop trying to fight on two fronts. For the last 20 years they have effectively been Labour's auxiliary force and, while Labour has been on the up, this has served them very well.

The question that they must answer is do they want to continue to be Labour's auxiliaries and share that party's coming pain or do they want to switch to the winning side.

Viscerally, they would much rather see a Labour government than a Tory one. However, opportunistically, there may be much more votes to be gained by putting the boot into Labour.

I doubt the Liberals can pull it off though. Most of their MPs don't care about anything more than keeping their seats and that is the reason most of them will lose their seats.

This is why Clegg will win because he represents the no change, neither-one-thing-no-the-other-but-something-inbetween view of Liberalism.

The MSM commentators, as they continue their slide into oblivion, are in danger of developing a habit of vastly over-estimating second raters. Ming was one: Brown was two: Clegg will be three.

Anonymous said...

Your analysis seems pretty accurate but I'm not quite so sure I agree that a party offering both economic and social liberalism wouldn't be able to create a base of its own.

Bear in mind it is possible for a third party to break through (as Labour are themselves proof), but when it happens it happens quickly on the back of a mass popular feeling, not gradual incrementalism or tactical voting as is the current strategy.

Clearly if they do elect a business as usual (but slightly slicker) leader they deserve their current status.

I think they should go for it, risk it all. Do or die! What else can they do?