Friday, April 06, 2007

Could a minister defect? And if they did, when?

Theoretically, in just over four weeks time the Prime Minister will announce his resignation as leader of the Labour Party - we are all assuming that he will announce his resignation as Prime Minister too although it's not strictly necessary. We also know that when Gordon "Macavity" Brown receives his almost certain coronation as leader that there will be many long faces amongst those Blairites who know their time in ministerial offices is coming to an end.

There are a number of obvious faces in the Blairite camp who will certainly have no future under a Brown leadership. One of those people is the not-long peered, Lord Adonis, the Schools Minister. Adonis is not, apparently, very liked in the Labour Party, mainly because a lot of them think he is a Tory, which brings me neatly on to the question of defection.

It may well be that Atticus in last week's Sunday Times was having an April Fool's Day gag when he said "gossips at No 10 no less are suggesting a bigger target [for Tory defection] — schools minister Lord Adonis", but then Adonis does have form for side switching, and his policies on schools are certainly on the centre-right. He'd be at home I think in Cameron's Conservative Party.

The question is when will a defection, if any even occur, take place. It's always about timing after all. The day before the local elections polls open might be a possibility. That would give good media coverage on polling day. Having said this, the polls might not shift that much, so would it be worth it?

The day after the elections is out of the question, it would simply be seen as opportunistic rat leaves sinking ship to many. There is no point in doing it the day after Blair resigns either, it would just get buried. No, the perfect timing for any possible defection from Labour to the Tories would be the day after Gordon Brown becomes leader to drive home the point that he is not a man someone can work with.

2 comments:

James Higham said...

Lord Adonis - is that his real name?

skipper said...

Real name Andrew Adonis and his dad was a cab driver from Cyprus if I'm not mistaken. I know him slightly from academic connections and can say he is both charming and helpful as well as very clever. He once stood as a Lib Dem candidate I believe, was a big fan of Jenkins and is writing a biography of him. I would doubt he'd defect to the Tories- though will put my hands up if proved wrong. His book on British society, A Class Act, is scarcely a right-wing tract.