Monday, November 10, 2008

Anonymous Labour attack blog offline

Interesting, the toryparty.net website that I posted about yesterday - which saw former Downing Street Aide, Adrian McMenamin say there was no secret and that advertising for the site had been removed because of "spammers" hacking him - has been taken down and repointed to transpero.net.

Wonder what happened there then?

Who would have a poster of Stalin?

There is a timely article questioning why Stalin has been given the light touch treatment from history on the BBC which follows on from Russell Brand's resignation video where he had a picture of the dictator on his wall.


The article argues that part of the problem is thaqt Stalinw as an ally during WW2.I would argue for most students today that is nonsense. The problem is that they see something honourable in communism and thus believe the tractor statistic bullshit.

At the same time, amongst the more left-liberal classes, there is a tendency toward anti-americanism of he kind that Nick Cohen noted in What's Left?. This is essentially the dogma that "whoever is America's enemy is my friend".

Personally I think it is quite sad that a man who made Hitler look like a pussycat should be revered by (ignorant) people. The man killed in excess of 40 million of his own people for no reason other than his own mental whim. How could anyone have a poster of him on their wall?

Another "tax cut con" on the way?

Quick bit of speculation. Let's say that Brown meets the rampant speculation and cuts some taxes. Let's say he cuts them by £10bn. How will he answer the charge that £10bn in tax cuts is equal to £10bn in spending cuts? After all, in response to the Lib Dems extremely modest proposals for tax cuts worth £20bn he has been very clear that it would mean £20 billion of public spending cuts.

For the past decade Brown has pushed the entire fallacious argument that anyone proposing tax cuts must, in consequence, reduce spending by the same amount. The argument back to him has been the obvious one that in a growing economy that is simple not the case. However, Brown does not have that argument anymore because the economy is shrinking (or at best static). In which case, tax cuts must mean a reduction in public spending.

So what if he argues that he is not cutting public spending whilst simultaneously offering tax cuts? How can he get himself out of the trap his own dodgy rhetoric has created? I reckon he is going to borrow more to cover the shortfall which, in the end, means that we have another tax cutting con.

Brown is the absolutely master at cooking the books; I would not be surprised to see this happen. Think about it this way. Let's say, for arguments sake, public spending borrowing is £10bn in total. Brown offers tax cuts worth £1bn and then just increases his public spending borrowing to £11bn with the understanding that the tax rise will occur again at later date.

Zero sum game, but you can bet he pushes himself as "Brown the Tax Cutter" again just like last time. The question is whether the media will push his line for him again and then just scream and shout when the reality of it comes to fruition.

Brown is loving his recession

Should Brown really be enjoying himself so much whilst the economy turns to crap thanks to his own decisions?
Via ConservativeHome

The politicised Civil Service for all to see?

The following is a memo written by a Civil Servant regarding how to tackle and attack the Conservative Party position on the controversial "Contactpoint" database that will contain information on every child. Isn't it wonderfully politically neutral?
Apparently, the list of people who will have access to this database is growing ever larger, now anyone who works within the Police force will be able to search it, from officers down to civilian duty officers.

Download the other half of the memo here

How mass immigration could cause problems for policing the Olympics?

Interesting summary finding by the Home Affairs Select Committee have been published today noting that immigration is causing significant problems for the Police. Specifically, the "public expectations of the police are not being met" and one of the primary functions causing this is because,
"Foreign nationals take longer and cost more for police forces to process than British citizens. Rapid immigration has led to funding shortfalls in some force areas."
More worryingly was the Select Committees finding that they
"found it difficult to assess whether the service has the capacity to respond to a major terrorist attack or manage large-scale events such as the Olympics".
So we have a police service that is overstretched, underfunded and might not be able to cope with the massive influx of people at the Olympics and the threat that such an event will bring in terms of terrorism.

No doubt the Government will reel out the tractor statistcis on how they've put more police on the streets and that crime is going down. However, as is clear, ther tractor stats have a tendency towards having hidden truths.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

EXCLUSIVE: Labour rapid rebuttal caught setting up anonymous Tory attack blog?

Tory Bear has been pondering whether the so-called Derek Draper right-wing blog rebuttal operation is under way now that an anonymously created site called toryparty.net has appeared. The site initially appeared in September around the same time that Draper was being brought back.

I can reveal that this site has indeed been set-up by someone heavily linked with Derek Draper. Adrian McMenamin, a former Downing Street advisor and the man that headed up Labour's rapid rebuttal Excalibur system prior to 1997 appears to be behind the site. What's more, his attempts to hide it were not quite good enough.

You see, they've managed to use a privacy provider for the Whois record to hide the ownership of the toryparty.net domain, unlike when hatemytory.com was set up, but a fundamental mistake has then been made you see.
dizzy@dizzy-laptop:~$ host toryparty.net
toryparty.net has address 88.198.44.150
dizzy@dizzy-laptop:~$ host 88.198.44.150
150.44.198.88.in-addr.arpa domain name pointer transpero.net.

dizzy@dizzy-laptop:~$ host www.hatemytory.com
www.hatemytory.com has address 88.198.44.150
dizzy@dizzy-laptop:~$ host 88.198.44.150
150.44.198.88.in-addr.arpa domain name pointer transpero.net.
Yes, that's right, instead of getting it its own IP, the site has simply been pointed to the same named addressed for his other, main Labour site, "transpero.net". This is the same as the the set up for "hatemytory.com". Transpero.net, for those who don't know, is a site "devoted to developing internet based resources for Labour Party members and supporters."

Nice try, but they got caught out. I do wonder if those bloggers on the Left who are obsessed and outraged by fake anonymous sites will pass comment on this. Here's the bottom line though, it has been well reported that Derek Draper is heading up some kind of online rebuttal strategy for Brown.

Suddenly an attack blog appears that uses the name "toryparty" around the same time, and it's set-up, hosted, and pointed to the site of one of Draper's former rapid rebuttal colleagues from Millbank. You do the maths. If I was in CCHQ I would be starting domain dispute proceedings with Adrian McMenamin.

If Derek Draper, Adrian McMenamin, and the Labour Party really want to have a war online then they're going to have learn some better tricks about concealing their tracks. Alternatively don't bother concealing your tracks, none of the high traffic right wing blogs that you fear so much are anonymous, why not just be proud of your own arguments and go for it?

Update: Adrian is insisting that he promoted the site when he set it up but the post got spammed with comments so he deleted the content and he says "You’ll have to just take my word for it."

Update: A cached page has been linked in the comments from Transpero which appears to link to the site in July but there is no "spam" which is the reason Adrian claims he deleted the content in the first place. Make of that what you will.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Coffee and sandwiches

Gone are the days when the trade unions went into 10 or 11 Downing Street and had beer and sandwiches. In the 21st Century it's coffee and sandwiches and the union bosses have been replaced by bankers.

What is worse is that these bankers and their banks are now, quite clearly, being controlled by the Government. The Bank of England reduces it base rate by 1.5% and, as many will know, some of the banks refuses to pass the rate cut on to their customers.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that at a time when liquidity in the banking sector is weak, inter-bank lending is not healthy, and the banks have massive liabilities that they would like to reduce.

However, now they have been leaned on by the Chancellor with blackmail threats of reducing their guarantees and no more help until they pass on the BoE cut to customers. Now please, someone tell me, how is that the supposed "arms length" approach and not an attack on the "commercial autonomy" of a bank which the Government said it would not do?

Now some might say that because the taxpayer has a stake in these banks it is within it's rights to demand change in rates etc. However, given the financial state of some of these institutions, cutting rates means cutting the return of monies they have already lent, or the money they are about to lend.

The obvious endgame for the banks therefore is to make it even harder to lend to new customer and up their requirements on the drastically cut rates. Obviously the Chancellor's approach is based on the belief that cheaper rates means more people will be able to afford to take out mortgages and will stimulate activity.

However, the banks initially refused to cut their rates, and did the whole withdrawal of mortgage and reintroduction the next day not to fill their pockets but to keep themselves stable and ensure that their business didn't go the way it had been going for the last few years.

Then along comes an interfering politician who essentially orders them to change their policy and reduce rates after there was "outcry" reflected in every paper across the political spectrum that painted the banks initial decisions as all about "fat cats".

According to the Times it is understood that the Chancellor "told the banks that they had mishandled their reaction" to the rate cut. Wrong. It is the Chancellor, egged on by the media, that has misunderstood their reaction to the rate cut, and this has now led to them being forced into reducing their rates at a time when many of them would rather not.

I'll eat my hat if the success rate of mortgage applications does not now stay static as the banks raise the bar for lending to people at the lower rate. Lower rates in a stable market will work, lower rates in a market where every bank is edgy and concerned they may be on the brink of collapse will just make them ever more cautious.

Meanwhile, according to the Daily Mail, "[t]he move will be cheered by more than a million homeowners whose monthly bills will drop by around £135 on an average £150,000 loan". Err hang on a second, lets look at this claim, for a start, anyone already on a so-called tracker would have benefited anyway.

The banks were not refusing to pass on the rate cut to those who already had a mortgage with them that tracked the BoE base rate. Anyone on fixed mortgage would not benefit either (which is what I am on until 2011 and it's way above the base rate but I made that choice two years ago because I had a feeling instability was on it's way).

It is only those who are on variable rates 10% of all mortgages that this has an impact on and frankly, if you have a variable rate then what exactly do you expect? You signed a mortgage agreement that put you at the will and whim of the bank not the Government.

Some might say that I'm being harsh and unfair, but it's worth pointing out that my repayments aren't moving at all and are significantly higher than they ought to be if I was on a tracker mortgage. I;m not complaining though, and quite rightly so, I took out a fixed rate for five years, that was my decision. Likewise if you have a variable rate mortgage that's your own fault.

Likewise, if you're on a tracker mortgage with a so-called "collar clause" which means if the bBoE base rate goes below a certain level you won't see the cut passed on in your repayments, then tough, you signed a contract. Live with it.

If Government wants and must "get involved" then perhaps, instead of interfering with banks commercial decisions, how about cutting tax. The same was true in petrol prices, the Government could slash the price of petrol if it really wanted to help. Instead of borrowing, cut income tax and people will have more of their own money in the first place.

Wordpress will be pleased

I see that Obama has his Office of the President-Elect up and running at change.gov. Looks like it is using Wordpress and it's at first glance doesn't contained themes and templates which required some sort of link back under the Creative Commons License like the Downing Street site. It also looks like it is a Wordpress site.

There is a rather large section called Agenda too which I'm sure many will be pouring over to see what actualy direction the "Yes We Can" man will be going in.

Friday, November 07, 2008

At last some stat porn

As I've often said, I don't do Stat Porn, but today I've decided to because I just wanted to thank the 229,543 absolute unique visitors (according to Google Analytics) that hit this blog and generated 1,073,743 page impressions in the past twelve months.

The monthly absolute unique visitors has been steady for some time now in the the 25,000 region and I can't deny that I'm happy with it. I never imagined that I would get so much traffic when I started up this little soapbox.

There will be no more stat porn until next year now.