tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22202011.post115960265461730948..comments2023-12-11T08:49:46.305+00:00Comments on Dizzy Thinks: The Conference BounceUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22202011.post-1159656911887976332006-09-30T23:55:00.000+01:002006-09-30T23:55:00.000+01:00The acid test will be a by election in a Labour he...The acid test will be a by election in a Labour held marginal. Until then, it is all so much chin music.Croydonianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14670533609622717223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22202011.post-1159630414323577072006-09-30T16:33:00.000+01:002006-09-30T16:33:00.000+01:00You're welcome to agree with the Labour spokesman ...You're welcome to agree with the Labour spokesman umbongo. After all, being wrong about something is not a partisan act!<BR/><BR/>The fundamental point about the polling data is that Labour always do worse than their opinion poll levels, whilst the Tories always do better. That was evident in 1992. 1997 was the exception to that rule, but it returned in 2001 and 2005, when both the two main parties perform contrary to the polls. Labour did worse than the polls said, and the Tories did better.<BR/><BR/>I think the Bromley reference you make is a rather sweeping statement based on know actual evidence as well. <BR/><BR/>The idea that the 9,000 or so people that didn't bother were "the core" is conjecture really. There are better reason for them not bothering that Cameron.<BR/><BR/>1) It was a by-election in a safe Tory seat. Normal people, that is non-members, but ordinary Tory voters would've beleived it was a forgone conclusion anyway.<BR/><BR/>2) It was a by-election at which the entire weight of the national Lib Dem and Tory party descended on to a small leafy burb on the London/Kent borders. From what I saw people were generally pissed off with the intrusion into their summer and World Cup. <BR/><BR/>3) It was a by-election.<BR/><BR/>I guess what I'm trying to say is that it was a by-election and citing the result as evidence of Cameron's failurr is as likely as all the other possible explanations. Of course, if one already dislikes Cameron then it's easy to frame an argument to suit one's need. <BR/><BR/>Incidentally, I'm not insulting you because I'm a Cameroon (I live in South East London), or because you're "hopelessly right wing" (are you?). I'm just pretty sure you're wrong and I'm right. But then this my blog so I'm never wrong on it.dizzyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04250325010662356883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22202011.post-1159628425054514002006-09-30T16:00:00.000+01:002006-09-30T16:00:00.000+01:00well said umbongo-dittowell said umbongo-dittoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22202011.post-1159608305351541332006-09-30T10:25:00.000+01:002006-09-30T10:25:00.000+01:00Although I hate to agree with the Labour spokesman...Although I hate to agree with the Labour spokesman you quote, he is correct to say that at this point in the last Conservative administration, Labour had an enormous lead in the polls when facing what was then seen as a sleazy government whose policies were starting to fall to pieces. The difference is that then Blair and Labour worked consistently and continuously to show up Tory shortcomings (even if they had to exaggerate or imagine them) and they were providing genuine policy alternatives. Cameron is not opposing Blair in the Commons or elsewhere - he's apeing him: he is providing no policy alternatives. Predictably the polls (the only evidence we have) suggest that the Tories are failing to obtain consistent support from the "soft middle" and see their core support drifting away. In Bromley, for instance the core sat on its hands.<BR/><BR/>The above seems to me self-evident and (although I'm no longer a member of the Conservative Party) I comment on ConservativeHome to the above effect from time to time. The Cameroons either don't address the criticism or deliver abuse (not to me but to other contributors taking a similar line). There is little hope for the Conservative "modernisers" when their sole objective is to big up Dave and their sole response to sincere criticism is to decry their opponents in the party as hopelessly right wing who should leave and join UKIP or the BNP.<BR/><BR/>It will end in tears with a high probability of a Labour/LibDem coalition after the next election. I do not relish the prospect of having to say "I told you so".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com